"Nevermore shall I see the Sun, for I fell to a German's gun. " -- Joseph Kilna Mackenzie, "Sgt Mackenzie." (2000.)
(it was a lament written to honor his great-grandfather, who was killed in WW1.)
(it was a lament written to honor his great-grandfather, who was killed in WW1.)
Every year around the end of September and on through the first days of November we here in the United States have our fall into winter transition, and with it comes what I'm going to call Spooky Season. Mostly centered around the Catholic feast of all saints or "all hallows day" the night before it is known as all hallows eve, or Hallow'een. or Halloween. The holiday actually is the catholic replacement for the Celtic Irish holiday Samhain or Lunar New Year. It is also known as "the ending" or "the dying times" when all green deciduous plants lose their leaves, weather turns cold, frosts come, winds blow from the Northwest, and the autumnal storms hit. These times of the year are so often associated with death, decay and gloom that there should be little wonder that people see ways to lighten the mood, often by "whistling past the graveyard" and telling spooky stories so everyone gets a good shiver and a good laugh out of it. Or by making or watching scary movies -- things that engage the startle reflex and then you laugh when you realize it's not serious, just a fellow in a rubber mask with a cardboard knife. We also joke about ghosts and ghouls, and go to haunted house entertainment venues that pop up this time of year. People get scared and it's all in good fun. There are sound psychological reasons for this behavior. You see, we humans are relatively fragile. Compared to sea turtles or parrots, we live a measly 85 years or so, with some dying out after a crummy 56 years. Our psychological refuges from this are religion and outright denial. Religion teaches that we are superior to other animals, and that we have some form of afterlife or next life to look forward to after our corporeal existence comes to an end. The problem with this is it's hubris to assume we are anything special. Religionists will then demand "but if we are not special, we are just worms on a pebble in the giant chaos that is the universe. " To which I reply: Yes, that is so. we are nothing more than mites on a mudball. So ? acknowledge and move on, fam. We exist because we exist, and no further reason need be given. But still there exists the problem of mortality. I hate the idea of dying. I hate it entirely. I intend to keep living just as long as I can. Many religious people also claim to be always in favor of the living, yet seem to have no problem with holy wars and the death penalty. But those are side issues, which, while worthy of discussion, should be dealt with another time. The thing is, death has always been just a blink away from us throughout our existence. Modern technology and comfortable, clean living conditions have allowed us to disassociate from this fact, most of the time. However, death reminds us of itself, in major when a friend or loved one dies. A parent, sibling, friend, treasured pet. They die and there is usually nothing we can do about it. We mourn the loss, but we carry on, even when we don't want to. Believe me, I know. When my mother died I was shattered. I wanted the world to stop but it did not. Well, everyone experiences loss. It haunts us all. So, once a year we poke fun at death with scary stories, scary events and scary movies. But then we turn around and attempt to increase our happiness with trick or treats, candy, and parties. There is nothing wrong with this. On the contrary, I argue that it is necessary to any intelligent species to find reasons to poke fun at death, a bit. reasons to whistle past the graveyard. Reasons to indulge in gallows humor. We all know we're going to one day shake hands with the man with the scythe, and for a few days we can laugh and scare ourselves and it helps us on a bit. So don't be afraid to enjoy a little spooky fun this time of year.
The main themes of the film are technology can't save us from technology, command and intelligence systems fail, and nukes are bad, dontchanknow. The premise is that an unknown but probably North Korea nation state launches a suborbital "low deflection" shot at the continental USA. Target: Uh, somewhere in a parallel-piped with corners at Chicago, St Louis, Columbus Ohio and Cleveland Ohio. The missile was launched during a magic blind spot in our surveilled satellite coverage, when all of our and our allies means of launch detection somehow didn't function until the missile was well on it's way. The alert finally given, an officer in Alaska orders the launch of two, and only two ballistic ground based missiles at the incoming vampire, because "We only have 55 weapons and we might need the rest against subsequent attacks." The movie later states that each weapon has only a 61% chance of an impact kill. with these odds, four missiles would be almost a guaranteed hit. However, the movie also makes the assumption that GMD is our only weapon useful in this scenario. Go look up THAAD, Standard MK3 BLK 2, Patriot. PAC 2/3. These systems also have anti-missile capability, and there are almost always 3 or more Aegis/SM3-BLK2 equipped ships somewhere along the coast. The odds of a single missile hitting are a lot smaller than the movie makes out.
Now, I'm not saying it's a bad movie. The acting is okay. the writing is, aside from the things I brought up, good. The cinematography is, to be honest, a bit lacking. Oh okay, I would have done it differently. But it wasn't mine to do. One final consideration is that I'm not sure the film makes it plain enough that the probability of a first use of nuclear weapons is based upon the least stable national leader that controls them. If Kim Jong Un thinks he's losing control of his country, would he order a first strike ? I don't know. I'm not sure the writers of House full of dynamite know either. Several potential scenarios are presented. But at bottom the film is a treatise on existential dread. The terror of nuclear annihilation. Personally I think Fail Safe (1964, Henry Fonda) did it better.
Clancy wrote what was then, in 1987, a chilling scenario in which the Russians, as prime mover in the Warsaw Pact, suffer a drastic casualty in it's oil production facilities due to poor planning and a group of Muslim fanatics. This causes the fictional Russian leader to decide that the only way to get out of the jam is to seize the Persian Gulf oil states. (with the possible exception of Iran.) If the Soviet controls the Arabian Peninsula not only is their immediate oil need satisfied, but their control would place a stranglehold on US and other economies. And so, the decision is taken. Warsaw Pact will launch a "defensive" battle against NATO, and split West Germany and Austria off, thus fracturing the alliance.
No doubt most of you are wondering by now why I'm spoiling a good read and what Clancy's fictional scenario has to do with the current very real war in Ukraine. I'm getting to that, but bear with me as I construct a scenario: Putin wants to wreck that portion of Ukraine not under his control so as to put an end to their threats of taking back the portions of the Donbas that his operatives have encouraged to separate from the main Ukraine country. It goes without saying that he also wants to keep them out of the Crimea he so badly wanted to re-integrate into Russia. Ukraine with it's leadership in prison (in Russia) and leaders installed by Putin would not be able or willing to drive Russians out of those territories. So now we come to the attempt at provocation. Putin has for years been manipulating events in Crimea and Donbas so that when the time came all three areas would break off from Ukraine and either request Russian "protection" or outright cede themselves to Russia to run by fiat. (both ends would be sufficient for Putin.) So, he cooks up this fiction about De-Nazifying Ukraine and protecting Ethnic Russians in the Donbas and Crimea. It is of course complete fabrication. The Ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine would have been content to remain there had not the mysterious "little green men" been there to "help" them separate from the rest of the country, in exactly the same way that "little green men" and "volunteers" helped Crimea secede from the nation. Well now let's turn to the Tom Clancy fiction again.
Why it is surprisingly similar. . . Why it should be familiar :
Late last night, I tabbed back into Firefox and looked at my twitter page. When I did so, I found that my twitter account, @tzed928 had been locked, because of a post I made which the Twitter bots decided was a suggestion to self-harm or suicide. My twitter handle is a name I made up as something short and relatively anonymous back when I was playing World of Warcraft to allow me to tweet images and text out of the game. From there, my participation grew until I was tweeting regularly out of that account. Well, that is now coming to a close. Earlier that night, someone with the handle @jtrebach posted a tweet of a then-unknown root and then asked if anyone would eat it if they were hungry. the captioned tweet below is the reply I made. A relatively sensible suggestion slice off a small piece of the root and rub it on the web between your finger and thumb. If you fee a burning or tingling sensation, discard the root and do not eat. read the survival guide. According to the almighty Twitter Bots, this is a suggestion to self-harm or suicide. In Fact, it is entirely the opposite. The picture was, as I later found out, that of a mandrake root. Mandrake root is dangerous and can be harmful or fatal if swallowed. It contains datura. The procedure that I suggested would have saved unknown numbers of people from a fairly horrible death by poison. The irony is not lost on me.
Twitter is a registered trademark of Twitter inc and used under the fair use exception, to wit: "purpose of research, private study, criticism, review, news reporting, education, satire or parody"
World of Warcraft is trademark Activision Blizzard and used without permission under the fair use exception, for : "purpose of research, private study, criticism, review, news reporting, education, satire or parody
Note: As if it needed saying : I do not condone, endorse or recommend self harm of any kind.
Note: I will not relent on this. I was not and am not wrong. My tweet violated no terms of service. It's intent is crystal clear to anyone who is not a moron or a robot.
Note: The irony is not lost on me that you can demand the head of the President of the United States on a platter, cheer on the nazi party, use whatever racist slurs you want, but mention "take your knife and slice . . . " and you get banned. I'm lookin at you, Jack Dorsey.
Some dates to remember: November 3 2020. Election Day. a Red-Letter Day if ever there was. It began early, with voting in person being mostly stronger than anticipated, but with a lot of mail-in ballots. In Arizona, if you are registered to vote and made a request for it, you got a mail-in ballot automatically. You fill your ballot out, marking the candidates and issues you want with a black or blue pen. Felt tips are permitted. It's thick paper and won't bleed through. Live in-person voting carried on all day, but slowly. Around 10 pm Eastern time, it looked to be very close, at least in the Electoral College. (in the national popular vote, it wasn't even close, with Biden eventually pulling a 7 million vote lead. ) By midnight, Trump started declaring himself the winner in states he clearly hadn't won. By 2 AM it was clear that, if Arizona and Georgia did not go for Trump, that he would not in fact be re-elected.
I'm not one to idealize people. Everyone, boyhood heroes included, puts their pants on one leg at a time.
But because my childhood was not more special than anyone else's, I'm not going to bother you with stories from my childhood. One man I knew of from my childhood was Gen. Charles E. "Chuck" Yeager. Yeager didn't just cultivate the image of a maverick, he was one. He was of the breed of pilots who learned to fly by instinct, by the seat of the pants. He flew combat missions over Europe in WW2, flying a Lockheed P51D mustang, "Glamorous Glenn" (for Glennis, his girlfriend and later his wife.)Yeager would go on to become "An Ace in a Day" shooting down 5 enemy aircraft in one day. If there was an aircraft type in service with the United States, odds were Yeager flew it. In a now-famous incident, with a broken arm and using a sawn-off broomstick for extra leverage, Yeager climbed down into the cockpit of a Bell X-1 ("Glamorous Glennis"), levered the canopy shut and in a few minutes was released into the air from the B-29 "Mother-ship" and shot off on a rocket-powered flight that broke the sound barrier. A first in aviation. (others may or not have exceeded mach 1, but Yeager did so under controlled circumstances.) In another well-known, possibly apocryphal incidence, Yeager is said to have declined participating in the Mercury Astronaut program, believing that the astronauts would be mere passengers, which was not his bag. In 1997 then-retired General Yeager would repeat his mach 1 flight in an F-15D Eagle fighter ("Glamorous Glennis III"), escorted by longtime wing-man and friend Bob Hoover, who had been Yeager's chase pilot on the day in 1947. Yeager's wife Glennis passed away in 1990 of ovarian cancer. The General re-married in 2007, much to the consternation of his family, who believed the woman was alienating his affections in order to make off with his money. I make no judgement on that, only to say a judge in California found in Gen. Yeager's favor, ruling that his daughter Susan had misused her authority as Trustee. Charles Elwood Yeager passed away on December 8, 2020, in Los Angeles California. He was 97.
Another hero passes into those gates which all must enter.
The political divide did not happen overnight, was not created by Donald Trump, and will not be made to go away by Joe Biden.
Newt Gingrich created the divide with his late night speeches in the well of the House, where he had a no cost cable TV presence. He spun the fable that there must be no compromises. That it would be his way or no way. Not many people saw him, but the right group of people did. Young, politically active republicans. They took Gingrich's message to heart, and went to war. No holds barred, stop at nothing to gain power. The first power grabs were not in the Federal legislature alone, but in state houses, governorship and other state-level offices. Thus the first of the big lies were told. "I'm against fraud, waste, and abuse! I'm a fiscal conservative! you can trust me with your money." Except they were not simple fiscal conservatives. They were die hard right wing christian conservatives, who wanted power not for what they could do for the people, but for what they could do TO the people. They Gerrymandered as much of the political map as they could. Then again in 2000. and again in 2010. The left were stupidly complacent. They had controlled the Congress off and on but more on than off since the 1970s, and saw no reason why things should change. The Supreme Court was carefully stage-managed. The lower courts were allowed to start to run empty. In fact, during Obama's time they were intentionally kept empty by McConnell. Now there are some 50 or so seats in the House which are, and will be for some time to come, absolutely safe GOP seats, and they are filled with Ideologues who, like Gingrich, insist it be their way or no way. At least the GOP are out of the Majority in the House, for now. But it's another census year, and Despite strenuous efforts by former President Obama, the political landscape won't change much. Then comes 1987, and Reagan-appointee Dennis R Patrick's decision as FCC Chairman to undo the Fairness Doctrine. The Fairness Doctrine was an FCC rule that demanded that broadcasters, both radio and television, who use a federal license, include in their programming a certain number of hours of coverage of public affairs and of controversial issues, and that said coverage be, in the FCCs view fair, unbiased and represent both sides of an issue. This rule was in place from 1944 until it was removed. But the thing is, the Reagan argument was that rules are unnecessary in a civilized society, where the free market will see to it that the battle of ideas carries to those who wish to watch. The problem with that idea is that people will, if given the choice, avoid ideas that don't flow with our own. We self-select for information that agrees with us. Information no longer is non-partisan. Presentation of news is politically driven. People become so familiar with the news that suits their biases that things that run contrary to them are seen as alien,or other. Those who cleave to other ideas are seen as Alien. Politics goes from being the marketplace of Ideas and becomes the Battleground of Ideas. But then comes someone like Trump, who has no connection to truth. He comes and lies to us, and those whose biases are more ideologically of the same polarity as the Trump lies decide they will believe the lie, even if somewhere in their mind they know it's not true. Trump has become like a cult leader, stringing lies together, getting people hooked on the lie. This is why they chant at Trump rallies. It's a form of group affirmation. They need to know they are not the only one who buys the lie. And so it goes. The political divide has gotten wider to the point it's causing families to disintegrate. It's breaking up friendships and causing fights. Please that it not cause worse violence. I'm not a big fan of Joe Biden, but by damn we need someone to pull us back from the brink.
This version of me, contained wholly within my imagination, comes from my Celtic roots, and no doubt is influenced by my studies. But, tonight marks the Equinox. A day with mystic significance to many, and of only passing mathematical curiosity to the rest of us. From today, the days will grow shorter, the nights longer. The Atlantic will see the Equinoctial Gales. The cool winds will blow, and turn colder next month. Summer is on the way out, Fall is coming on, and Winter is coming up the drive. All too soon, for many in the Northern Hemisphere, the old man in blue will be among us, nipping at our noses, chilling our feet, and making us wish for Spring to come dancing in. But for now, I see a darkness. I can hear ancient words in my head that come unbidden. I'm not superstitious, but the mood is changing.
A small part of me, the part of me in the grey robes and the stag's head, it says back to the void : "Yes! Bring it! The Darkness is my friend!" But then so is the light. And there is still light, even in the darkest night. There is still hope.
The time is coming, are you ready ?