A Rememberance for Rememberance Day 2025

 "Nevermore shall I see the Sun, for I fell to a German's gun. "  -- Joseph Kilna Mackenzie, "Sgt Mackenzie." (2000.) 

(it was a lament written to honor his great-grandfather, who was killed in WW1.)

On the Eleventh Hour of the Eleventh Day of the Eleventh Month of 1918 all fighting on the European Western Front ceased, bringing a final halt to a war which had been fought on battlefields around the world since 1914. 

 Halloween, spooky season, existential dread and House of Dynamite. 

                    Every year around the end of September and on through the first days of November we here in the United States have our fall into winter transition, and with it comes what I'm going to call Spooky Season. Mostly centered around the Catholic feast of all saints or "all hallows day" the night before it is known as all hallows eve, or Hallow'een. or Halloween. The holiday actually is the catholic replacement for the Celtic Irish holiday Samhain or Lunar New Year. It is also known as "the ending" or "the dying times" when all green deciduous plants lose their leaves, weather turns cold, frosts come, winds blow from the Northwest, and the autumnal storms hit. These times of the year are so often associated with death, decay and gloom that there should be little wonder that people see ways to lighten the mood, often by "whistling past the graveyard" and telling spooky stories so everyone gets a good shiver and a good laugh out of it. Or by making or watching scary movies -- things that engage the startle reflex and then you laugh when you realize it's not serious, just a fellow in a rubber mask with a cardboard knife. We also joke about ghosts and ghouls, and go to haunted house entertainment venues that pop up this time of year. People get scared and it's all in good fun. There are sound psychological reasons for this behavior. You see, we humans are relatively fragile. Compared to sea turtles or parrots, we live a measly 85 years or so, with some dying out after a crummy 56 years. Our psychological refuges from this are religion and outright denial. Religion teaches that we are superior to other animals, and that we have some form of afterlife or next life to look forward to after our corporeal existence comes to an end. The problem with this is it's hubris to assume we are anything special. Religionists will then demand "but if we are not special, we are just worms on a pebble in the giant chaos that is the universe. " To which I reply: Yes, that is so. we are nothing more than mites on a mudball. So ? acknowledge and move on, fam. We exist because we exist, and no further reason need be given. But  still there exists the problem of mortality. I hate the idea of dying. I hate it entirely. I intend to keep living just as long as I can. Many religious people also claim to be always in favor of the living, yet seem to have no problem with holy wars and the death penalty. But those are side issues, which, while worthy of discussion, should be dealt with another time. The thing is, death has always been just a blink away from us throughout our existence. Modern technology and comfortable, clean living conditions have allowed us to disassociate from this fact, most of the time. However, death reminds us of itself, in major when a friend or loved one dies. A parent, sibling, friend, treasured pet. They die and there is usually nothing we can do about it. We mourn the loss, but we carry on, even when we don't want to. Believe me, I know. When my mother died I was shattered. I wanted the world to stop but it did not. Well, everyone experiences loss. It haunts us all. So, once a year we poke fun at death with scary stories, scary events and scary movies. But then we turn around and attempt to increase our happiness with trick or treats, candy, and parties. There is nothing wrong with this. On the contrary, I argue that it is necessary to any intelligent species to find reasons to poke fun at death, a bit. reasons to whistle past the graveyard. Reasons to indulge in gallows humor. We all know we're going to one day shake hands with the man with the scythe, and for a few days we can laugh and scare ourselves and it helps us on a bit. So don't be afraid to enjoy a little spooky fun this time of year. 

Now on to the other topic: The movie "A house of dynamite."      

                 The main themes of the film are technology can't save us from technology, command and intelligence systems fail, and nukes are bad, dontchanknow. The premise is that an unknown but probably North Korea nation state launches a suborbital "low deflection" shot at the continental USA. Target: Uh, somewhere in a parallel-piped with corners at Chicago, St Louis, Columbus Ohio and Cleveland Ohio. The missile was launched during a magic blind spot in our surveilled satellite coverage, when all of our and our allies means of launch detection somehow didn't function until the missile was well on it's way. The alert finally given, an officer in Alaska orders the launch of two, and only two ballistic ground based missiles at the incoming vampire, because "We only have 55 weapons and we might need the rest against subsequent attacks." The movie later states that each weapon has only a 61% chance of an impact kill. with these odds, four missiles would be almost a guaranteed hit. However, the movie also makes the assumption that GMD is our only weapon useful in this scenario. Go look up THAAD, Standard MK3 BLK 2, Patriot. PAC 2/3. These systems also have anti-missile capability, and there are almost always 3 or more Aegis/SM3-BLK2 equipped ships somewhere along the coast. The odds of a single missile hitting are a lot smaller than the movie makes out. 

                    Now, I'm not saying it's a bad movie. The acting is okay. the writing is, aside from the things I brought up, good. The cinematography is, to be honest, a bit lacking. Oh okay, I would have done it differently. But it wasn't mine to do. One final consideration is that I'm not sure the film makes it plain enough that the probability of a first use of nuclear weapons is based upon the least stable national leader that controls them. If Kim Jong Un thinks he's losing control of his country, would he order a first strike ? I don't know. I'm not sure the writers of House full of dynamite know either. Several potential scenarios are presented. But at bottom the film is a treatise on existential dread. The terror of nuclear annihilation. Personally I think Fail Safe (1964, Henry Fonda) did it better.    

HAPPY HALLOWEEN! 

   

 A little reminder from days gone by: 

Back in 2018 I wrote this on my facebook wall: 

   " I am relatively certain that it will come out that a fistful of Russian intelligence operators came to the USA in order to facilitate the election of the current occupant of the White House. They acted in collusion with Candidate 1's campaign, and obtained and used data generated by contractors employed by Candidate 1 to push the election in Candidate 1's direction. It will be revealed that Candidate 1 received material aid from these foreign agents, and that Candidate 1 was aware of these machinations and approved of them. Finally, it will be hinted at, if not actually brought out, that Candidate 1 was recruited to be an agent of influence by the Russian government. (Note: this is not based on sources. it is strictly and only my opinion based on my personal perception and synthesis of known events and projected possible outcomes. I am not a psychic, and I do not believe such things exist. I am however, well up in the news, and in the practices of Intelligence agencies, including ours and theirs. "

 

Given  all that has transpired in the ensuing four years, how would you rate my prognostications ? I think I'm doing pretty well, all things considered. But considering the nature of the material missing from two of what are now being called the Mar-a-Lago documents, I would really rather have been wrong. 

 

Next we turn to Jared's money woes: One of the things a skilled intelligence operator will do is look for people with access (not necessarily power, but access.) who are having money troubles. The deeper and more private a financial hole the subject is in the better. This is ever so much better than trolling for gays or sexual deviants because people with money woes are much more common. They may be gamblers, speculators in the stock market (another form of gambling.) or maybe they just live too far above their means. Jared was in a deep financial hole. Now Jared has 2 billion to speculate with courtesy of the Saudis. I think it's a pretty easy set of dots to connect, don't you ?  

O- -- - - - - - - - - o

 A closing remark : On the volume of scandals.  Not long ago Fox News pundit Sean Hannity read off, in an angry voice, all the scandals that plagued the Former Guy's regime. He went on for about two minutes, listing all of them. Apparently it never occurred to Hannity that what he was doing is reading the bill of indictments against his hero. You could dismiss some of the investigations as being all sizzle and no steak, but you still have to admit that where there is smoke there is fire, and the former regime did issue forth a whole lot of smoke. These missing Classified documents may indeed be the flames we have been seeing signs of all along. I can only hope the damage control party can get to it in time. TFG blew a hole in the bottom of the ship of state, and men like Hannity helped him light the fuse.